Ernesto Prieto Gratacos

Antibiotic resistance is increasing at a super-exponential rate worldwide. Design and approval of new antimicrobial compounds has sunk to the lowest levels in decades. At the current rate of decline in therapeutic effectiveness, the simultaneous emergence of multiple extensively resistant pathogens ("superbugs" or panresistant germs) is projected by this model to occur beyond a critical inefficacy threshold in approximately fourteen years (±3). Untreatable microbes will set back health services globally and will have a profound effect on medical disciplines that invariably need pharmacological control of opportunistic bacteria, such as Oncology and Transplantation medicine (that rely heavily on myelotoxic and/or immunosuppressive drugs), Odontology, Intensive Care, etc. No radically new categories of antibiotics have been discovered for decades. Combinatorial treatments that intend to accentuate antibiotic efficacy may even accelerate the rate of microbial adaptation due to increased selective pressure. Unless new categories of germicidal substances are developed, a reverse epidemiological transition seems inevitable. This paper describes our forecast based on a mathematical model from hard data on the declining effect of antimicrobial medication. Additionally, it suggests an already proven, scalable line of treatment that could overcome microbial resistance.